Infinity Insights - Volume 11, Issue 19

AT-A-GLANCE SUMMARY
NYMEX spot month (July) nearing highs at 3.20.

SUMMARY OF THE LAST WEEK IN CHARTS

Spot month natural gas (July) support is 2.90 with resistance at 3.20. Calendar year 2022 finds support at 2.80 with resistance at 3.00. Calendar year 2023 has support at 2.60 with resistance at 2.75.

Roadmap
NYMEX natural gas spot month (July) closed at $3.097, $0.136 higher
compared to the close of May 14th

Calendar 2022
Calendar 2022 closed higher by ≈$0.105 at $2.8925 and is compared to close on May 14th

Cal 2023
Calendar 2023 was up ≈$0.105 at $2.7075 and is compared to close on May 14th

OUR TAKE ON THE MARKET

NYMEX Natural Gas

NYMEX spot month (July) nearing highs at 3.20. The balance of the forward curve also rallied to new highs. Technically, prices look to move higher. We see no reason for this trend to end.

WHOLESALE POWER

ERCOT
There is growing concern regarding resource adequacy in ERCOT in the face of forecasts for a hot summer. The market remembers the February freeze market and its reaction to generation failures. Wholesale prices are at new highs.

Capacity capture continues to dominate heat rate values, likely prompted by concern about real-time pricing (LMP) spikes. Our attempt to determine current LMP risk prompted the monitoring of LMP marks without the February numbers. The look isn’t absolute evidence but it does cause concern:

As with natural gas, we see no reason for this trend to end.

PJM

Prices have moved higher with natural gas.