Infinity Insights - Volume 11, Issue 18
AT-A-GLANCE SUMMARY
Spot month NYMEX natural gas (June) remains below $3.00 resistance for the third straight week.
SUMMARY OF THE LAST WEEK IN CHARTS
Spot month natural gas (June) support is 2.90 with resistance at 3.00. Calendar year 2022 finds support at 2.70 with resistance at 2.85. Calendar year 2023 has support at 2.55 with resistance at 2.70.
Roadmap
NYMEX natural gas spot month (June) closed at $2.961, $0.003 higher.
Calendar 2022
Calendar 2022 settled firmer by ≈$0.015 at $2.785.
Calendar 2023
Calendar 2023 ended the week at $2.6025, ≈$0.0025 up.
OUR TAKE ON THE MARKET
NYMEX Natural Gas
Spot month NYMEX natural gas (June) remains below $3.00 resistance for the third straight week. Prices have ranged tightly between $2.90 and $3.00. The pattern suggests waiting for the next shoe to drop in regards to the news that affects demand/supply balance. Weather is usually the catalyst and a warm summer is forecasted. Pullbacks are minimal so our suggestion to buy pullbacks for procurement may not present itself. It is a bullish environment.
WHOLESALE POWER
ERCOT
Heat rates are at their highs similar to natural gas. Capacity capture (letting the providers wear the risk of shortages) is likely a key factor. As mentioned above, pullbacks would find buyers waiting so it may be wishful thinking to expect a significant downside.
PJM
Natural gas strength is keeping prices at their highs.