Infinity Insights - Volume 11, Issue 20

AT-A-GLANCE SUMMARY
NYMEX natural gas spot month (July) continues its march higher, breaking through 3.20 resistance Friday.

SUMMARY OF THE LAST WEEK IN CHARTS

Spot month natural gas (July) support is 3.00 with resistance at 3.40. Calendar year 2022 finds support at 2.80 with resistance at 3.00. Calendar year 2023 has support at 2.70 with resistance at 2.95.

Roadmap
NYMEX natural gas spot month (July) settled at $3.296, $0.199 better

Calendar 2022
Calendar 2022 ended higher by ≈$0.05375 at $2.9475

Cal 2023
Calendar 2023 finished up ≈$0.00375 at $2.705

OUR TAKE ON THE MARKET

NYMEX Natural Gas

NYMEX natural gas spot month (July) continues its march higher, breaking through 3.20 resistance Friday. Calendar strips 2022 and 2023 have made new highs. Technically, prices look to continue firm. Whether or not to lock now or wait for a pullback is a question we answer with another question: How much risk can you tolerate?

Concerns/Bullish Factors:

• Inflation

• Weather

• Bullish bias – technical picture

WHOLESALE POWER

ERCOT
Wholesale ERCOT power prices are at their highs with the front of the curve the strongest. This is a reflection of the hot weather forecast as well as the continued reluctance to depend on real-time (LMP) pricing.

The decision to pay up for power reflects the same quandary as natural gas: How much risk can you tolerate? If you have an immediate start, the decision is forced; if you have a deferred start, you’ll find lower prices that deserve attention.

PJM

Natural gas and weather support higher prices.