Infinity Insights – Volume 9, Issue 33
AT-A-GLANCE SUMMARY
NYMEX natural gas spot month (October) rallied with the crude market sympathetically with Saudi oil facility attack (no real threat to natural gas)
SUMMARY OF THE LAST WEEK IN CHARTS
Spot month natural gas (October) has support at 2.45, with resistance at 2.65-2.75. Calendar year 2020 has support at 2.48 with resistance 2.60. Calendar year 2021 has support at 2.40 with resistance at 2.48.For a look at our monthly market reports, visit Infinity Power Partner’s Market Overview.
RoadmapNYMEX natural gas spot month (October) ended the week $0.08 lower at $2.534.
What’s This? – The “Roadmap” is the price action chart depicting the NYMEX natural gas spot month. It’s important because it is essentially the trading community’s market sentiment.
Cal 20Calendar 2020 fell off ≈$0.03 at $2.51.
What’s This? – “Cal 2020” is the first complete 12-month strip. It gives you a visual of price action and provides a reference point for our take on the market
Cal 21Calendar 2021 closed at $2.4775, up by ≈$0.02.
What’s This? – What’s This? – “Cal 2021” is the second complete 12-month strip. It gives you a visual of price action and provides a reference point for our take on the market.
OUR TAKE ON THE MARKET
NYMEX Natural GasNYMEX natural gas spot month (October) rallied with the crude market sympathetically with Saudi oil facility attack (no real threat to natural gas), finding resistance in the 2.65 – 2.75 area. Open interest continued to fall during the rise, something that suggests shorts being pressured. The forward curve exhibited bullish reaction at the first of the week but gave it back as the week ended
WHOLESALE POWER
ERCOTSummer is all but gone as the curves reflect. Not until next summer does risk raise its head.We note that heat rates continue to be backwardated, probably due as much to declining capacity concerns as the front bullishness through the summer.PJMPJM is looking towards the heating season and the risks associated. Value is offered past winter 2019 – 2020.Heat rates are fairly flat through the calendar years.