Infinity Insights – Volume 8, Issue 37
AT-A-GLANCE SUMMARY
Over the last week, NYMEX spot month (November) natural gas has traded above $3.10 and below $3.40.
SUMMARY OF THE LAST WEEK IN CHARTS
Spot month natural gas (November) has support at 3.10 then 3.00 with resistance at 3.25 then 3.45. Calendar year 2019 has support at 2.84 with resistance at 2.92. Calendar year 2020 has support at 2.67 with resistance at 2.76.For a look at our monthly market reports, visit Infinity Power Partner’s Market Overview.
Roadmap
NYMEX natural gas spot month (November) finished at $3.25, up $0.089.
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What’s This? – The “Roadmap” is the price action chart depicting the NYMEX natural gas spot month. It’s important because it is essentially the trading community’s market sentiment.
Cal 19
Calendar 2019 closed ≈$0.0175 higher at $2.9.
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What’s This? – “Cal 19” is the first complete 12-month strip. It gives you a visual of price action and provides a reference point for our take on the market.
Cal 20
Calendar 2020 settled unchanged at $2.69.
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What’s This? – “Cal 20” is the second complete 12-month strip. It gives you a visual of price action and provides a reference point for our take on the market.
OUR TAKE ON THE MARKET
Over the last week, NYMEX spot month (November) natural gas has traded above $3.10 and below $3.40. This seems to be a comfort range for prices until the next shoe drops. March/April spread (“The Widow Maker”) has rallied to high 30s, a bullish tell. There are other indicators that likewise suggest higher prices. So now what?Both bulls and bears acknowledge that volatility has returned. This is evident in the natural gas curve up front. It is also true in the ERCOT heat rate curves. Wholesale power has moved higher as a result of the component curve action. Those who have not locked in earlier lower prices are faced with the age-old dilemma, do I lock or do I wait?All power users are short until they cover, either by locking some structure or lifting real time (LMP). This is the start of winter. Most prognosticators look for below normal temperatures. That’s bullish. Technical indicators look higher. That’s bullish. Besides buyer’s hope for lower numbers, what’s bearish? Production?The risk of paying more by waiting should be weighed against what you stand to gain by waiting. Our guess is that the market will remain nervous and nervous markets overreact. We wouldn’t wait.