Infinity Insights – Volume 8, Issue 36

AT-A-GLANCE SUMMARY

The rally in the front of the NYMEX natural gas curve continued from last week, finding resistance around $3.40ish.

SUMMARY OF THE LAST WEEK IN CHARTS

Spot month natural gas (November) has support at 3.10 then 3.00 with resistance at3.25 then 3.45. Calendar year 2019 has support at 2.84 with resistance at 2.92. Calendar year 2020 has support at 2.67 with resistance at 2.76.For a look at our monthly market reports, visit Infinity Power Partner’s Market Overview.

Roadmap

NYMEX natural gas spot month (November) finished at $3.161, up $0.018.

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What’s This? – The “Roadmap” is the price action chart depicting the NYMEX natural gas spot month. It’s important because it is essentially the trading community’s market sentiment.

Cal 19

Calendar 2019 closed ≈$0.04 higher at $2.8825.

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What’s This? – “Cal 19” is the first complete 12-month strip. It gives you a visual of price action and provides a reference point for our take on the market.

Cal 20

Calendar 2020 settled up $0.03 at $2.6.

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What’s This? – “Cal 20” is the second complete 12-month strip. It gives you a visual of price action and provides a reference point for our take on the market.

OUR TAKE ON THE MARKET

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The rally in the front of the NYMEX natural gas curve continued from last week, finding resistance around $3.40ish. Weather and storage deficit continue to be the drivers. Technically, price action has broken through resistance in the 3 to 3.10 area. Indicators show an overbought market approaching next technical resistance:Volatility has returned to the front of the curve. The market is in a backwardated configuration through 2022/2023. The importance here is that increasing term lowers natural gas price:Which is offset to a large extent by the heat rate curve spiking:Risk is to the upside.