Infinity Insights – Volume 8, Issue 13

AT-A-GLANCE SUMMARY

Natural gas prices continue to move sideways banded by $2.60 and $2.80.

SUMMARY OF THE LAST WEEK IN CHARTS

Spot month natural gas (May) has support at 2.60 with resistance at 2.80 then 2.90 Calendar year 2019 has support at 2.76 with resistance at 2.85. Calendar year 2020 has support at 2.74 with resistance at 2.83.For a look at our monthly market reports, visit Infinity Power Partner’s Market Overview.

Roadmap

NYMEX natural gas spot month (May) closed at $2.735, up $0.034.

Roadmap

What’s This? – The “Roadmap” is the price action chart depicting the NYMEX natural gas spot month. It’s important because it is essentially the trading community’s market sentiment.

Cal 19

Calendar 2019 settled at $2.80, basically unchanged.

Cal 19

What’s This? – “Cal 19” is the first complete 12-month strip. It gives you a visual of price action and provides a reference point for our take on the market.

Cal 20

Calendar 2020 was firmer by ≈$0.0075 at $2.7675.

Cal 20

What’s This? – “Cal 20” is the second complete 12-month strip. It gives you a visual of price action and provides a reference point for our take on the market.

OUR TAKE ON THE MARKET

nng

ERCOT

Natural gas prices continue to move sideways banded by $2.60 and $2.80. Action is not particularly volatile, something that suggests to us a market comfortable within the discussed range.Wholesale power prices in ERCOT do not reflect this same comfort for the front of the forward curve (through 2020). The volatility reflects concern for resource adequacy for the summer, something much discussed by market participants.Summer’s power price likely will be weather-driven. Hot weather stresses supply/demand balance; lack of same does not. Current curve suggests market’s expectation for the former.Industry NewsCenterPoint Energy rate increase proposal:https://www.chron.com/business/article/CenterPoint-Energy-proposes-electricity-rate-12813428.phpNRG Energy’s take on: ERCOT summer capacity concerns:https://www.nrg.com/insights/energy-education/what-texas-businesses-need-to-know-about-scarcity-pricing-this-s.html?sid=AEM_2018April_CommodityInsights_P1