Infinity Insights - Volume 14, Issue 12
MONTHLY UPDATE - JANUARY 2025 EDITION
NATURAL GAS
NYMEX Natural Gas has settled around the $3.50 range after major volatility.
The most recent EIA Natural Gas Inventory Report for week ending 1/17 showed a net withdraw of 223 Bcf, a softer withdraw than expected. Current inventory sits at 2,892 Bcf. Inventories sit at 2% below the year ago mark and 1% above the 5-year average. The next Weekly Natural Gas Storage Report will be published 1/30 showing storage levels through 1/24, which could be the largest natural gas inventory withdraw ever.
EIA’s Short-Term Energy Outlook forecasts US Henry Hub will average $3.10 and $4.00/MMBtu in 2025 and 2026, respectively. The forecasted higher prices are mainly driven by demand outpacing supply due to LNG export growth. In 2024 Henry Hub averaged $2.20/MMBtu.
Spot month natural gas has support at $3.35 with resistance at $4.25.
Calendar year 2025 finds support at $3.14 with resistance at $4.67. Calendar year 2026 has support at $3.49 with resistance at $4.70. Calendar year 2027 has support at $3.29 with resistance at $4.70, another increase across the board versus prior month.
Global natural gas prices ($/MMBtu):
Henry Hub (USA): $3.09↑
NBP (UK): $14.76↑
TTF (Dutch) $15.39↑
JKM (Japan/Korea) $13.99↓
The latest global weather forecasts show most of the US, South America, Africa, Europe and Asia expecting to have warmer than normal 2nd half of winter. Hypothetically, this forecast should put downward pressure on international gas prices as heating needs are reduced. Prices, for the most part, have moved up, which points to alternative factors such as growing demand for natural gas for power generation.
WINTER STORM ENZO
Sunday, January 12 NOAA published its 8 to 14 Day Outlook, showing a significant Arctic front making its way south from Canada, stretching across the US lower 48. As a result spot natural gas rallied from $3.93 up to $4.26 on January 15 before settling back down below the $4.00 mark.
The system brought winter storm conditions to the south and eastern United States starting January 20th. PJM, ERCOT and TVA set new winter demand records. Real-time pricing was elevated during the storm, especially in the Northeast where NYISO Zone J sustained pricing above $200/MW and WCMASS saw an average real-time price average of $185/MW over the 3 days.
ERCOT did suprisingly well, maintaining pricing around $40/MW. ERCOT’s stellar performance is attributed to added generation, new winterization requirements and market mechnisms such as ECRS (Emergency Response Service) and PCM (Performance Credit Mechanism).
Similarly, natural gas daily prices were elevated in these areas too. Tetco-M3, flowing from east Texas to the northeast saw 8X prints with pricing at $40/MMBtu 1/18 thru 1/21. The Algonquin gas line, delivering natural gas from Pennsylvania to New England saw $33/MMBtu for the same 4 days. Generally, natural gas along with providing heat, was also the main fuel source for power generation, contributing to the high LMP (locational marginal pricing) during this event.
The good news is that there were no rolling blackouts, mandatory calls for conservation or major threats to the 3 major US grids. As we’ve seen in recent years, major load growth has been from electrification and datacenters. As pricing increases it becomes cost prohibitive to run these systems. As a result, these large loads volantarily curtail to avoid operating at high costs. The grid is designed to support these large loads in normal conditions and because of pricing mechanisms these easily curtailable loads fall off, creating almost a safety net for the grid.
WEATHER
NOAA’s forecasts are showing near to above normal temperatures for both short and long-term forecasts. Current drought monitor shows few regions with some drought, mainly in the High Plains and Southwest. Most of the country is forecasted to receive normal to above normal rainfall except for the Southwest where drought conditions will continue.
MARKET NEWS
The US economy remains strong with the latest GDP data showing the US economy growing at a 3% annualized rate, US unemployment remains healthy at 4.1%, equity markets are at all-time highs, and consumer confidence is on the upswing. Inflation remains a bit high at 2.9%, whereas the Fed’s goal inflation rate is 2%.
CLIENT SPOTLIGHT: ASSET LIVING
Asset Living: Committed to Giving Back and Making a Difference in Communities Nationwide
Asset Living, one of the nation’s largest third-party property management companies, is driven by a clear mission: to enhance the resident experience and optimize property performance. With a focus on managing multi-family, student housing, affordable, active adult, and build-to-rent communities, Asset Living has become a trusted partner in real estate nationwide. The company’s reach extends across more than 288,655 units, making a significant impact in the lives of residents and communities across the United States.
“At Asset Living, our commitment to giving back is unwavering. As a team and as individuals, we actively seek opportunities to contribute to our community—both within and beyond the workplace,” says Ryan McGrath, CEO and President of Asset Living. This philosophy is reflected in the company’s values, which guide their efforts to make a positive impact in the communities they serve.
A Legacy of Community Support
Asset Living’s commitment to giving back is more than just a corporate initiative—it is a core part of the company’s identity. The company's impact is felt nationwide, with over 8,000 employees actively involved in making a difference. Together, they contribute more than 64,000 volunteer hours annually, touching the lives of more than 1,000 communities across the country.
For over 30 years, Asset Living has been dedicated to supporting the communities they serve. Through their efforts, they aim to be a positive force for change and a testament to the power of community involvement.
Partnership with Covenant House
One of the standout examples of Asset Living’s dedication to giving back is its partnership with Covenant House, the largest privately funded charity in North and Central America, providing vital support to young people facing homelessness and survivors of human trafficking. Since 2021, Asset Living has raised more than $281,000 for Covenant House, funds that go directly toward providing shelter, education, job training, healthcare, and mental health services for young adults in need.
“This partnership with Covenant House is incredibly important to us,” says McGrath. “Every contribution to Covenant House is a step toward changing lives, and I’m incredibly proud of how our Asset Living team has embraced this mission. We’re not just supporters; we’re advocates standing together for youth facing homelessness. A heartfelt thank you to our partners at Covenant House for their tireless work and for empowering us to make a meaningful impact in our communities.”
Asset Living employees raised $50,355 in support of Covenant House’s 2024 Sleep Out event, a night dedicated to sleeping outdoors in solidarity with the thousands of young adults who seek refuge at Covenant House each year. The event raises awareness for the challenges faced by homeless youth while raising essential funds to support their journey to independence.
To learn more about Asset Living's ongoing efforts and recent work with Covenant House, visit Asset Living's website.
