Special Report Winter Storm January 2025
January 15, 2025 - Special Report Winter Storm January 2025
Continental US is expecting the coldest spell so far this season, arriving January 19. According to Severe Weather Europe “the southern lobe of the Polar Vortex will generate a much more significant, frigid cold Arctic Blast that will graze across Canada and the United States through the second half of January. The disturbance in the Polar Vortex aloft will establish extreme cold conditions. Temperatures are forecast to plunge into a deep freeze, pushing 30-40 degrees below normal for tens of millions across the North American Continent.”
As we’ve previously discussed, this winter was expected and has been mild so far. The biggest threat to the mild season is a polar vortex disturbance which allows frigid Arctic air to travel south. Per Dr. Judah Cohen from Atmospheric and Environmental Research (AER) “this winter has been all about the polar vortex (PV) alternating among strong, a Canadian warming but most of all a stretched PV. This pattern looks to continue but for how long?”
The unstable Polar Vortex causes unseasonably cold weather when the vortex stretches south. This has been the theme of this winter as we’ve had a very mild (warm) winter with short-lived bursts of extreme cold. As can be seen in the graph below, the first abnormally cold conditions for the US as a whole was week ending 12/7/2024. The upcoming event is expected to be more intense and impact more regions of the US.
Winter of 2023/2024 was the mildest in US history. We have experienced 13 weeks of winter so far for winter 2024/2025. Comparatively, the winter of 2023 had cumulative Heating Degree Days total of 1,468 13 weeks into the season. This season the US has a cumulative Heating Degree Days total of 1,476, approximately .5% more Heating Degree Days versus the mildest winter in US history and a staggering 13% less than the historical average.
This will change January 19th when Arctic weather makes its way south to the continental US.
Natural Gas
The most significant withdraw from the US working gas in underground storage was reported for week end 12/6/24, which corresponds to the pop in HDD’s observed for week ending 12/7/24.
As the winter storm approaches, natural gas inventories remain healthy. Current storage is in line with prior year levels and the 5-yr maximum and about 16% above the 5-yr minimum. Expect sufficient natural gas supplies, with price volatility at the impacted hubs, and a material withdraw from the EIA Natural Gas Inventory Report release 1/29/25, showcasing inventory levels for week ending 1/24/2025.
Prior to the updated weather forecast, prompt natural gas (February ’25) was trading at $3.98/MMBtu. Natural gas spiked above $4.25/MMBtu after NOAA updated their forecast showing the winter storm. Since the Monday, 1/13 spike prices have settled back down around the $4 mark.
The graph above shows the forecasted Heating Degree Days for the various US regions compared to recent winter events. This weather event is not expected to be record breaking for any particular region and we anticipate the individual ISO’s will be able to satisfy the highetend demand.
We do expect high locational marginal prices (LMP) and high capacity marks for power during periods of low renewable generation and high demand. These periods of tight supply will be around 08:00 when commercial buildings come online, solar is still offline, and wind generation is dropping. The second period of tight supply will be 20:00 when temperatures drop, residential units come online, solar is offline, and wind production is low.
As mentioned, ISO’s are expected to be able to keep up with demand. Recent developments are showing precipitation for the eastern half of the US. The wintery weather along with precipitation adds another wrinkle to the issues the system could bring. With precipitation there is a risk of power and transmission lines failing because of ice accumulation on the lines. Failing power lines appear to pose the greatest threat to local service interruptions. Additionally, this could be compounded by hazardous road conditions that could delay restoration efforts.
For comparison with Winter Storm Uri in February 2021, below are the low temperatures forecasted for the major population centers in Texas.
Note: through market mechanisms (ECRS –ERCOT Contingency Reserve Service and PCM – Performance Credit Mechanism), winterization rules and more generation capacity we do not expect Texas to see outages as experienced during Winter Storm Uri, February 2021.
Monitor official updates through local TV, radio, or trusted online sources and adhere to guidance from local authorities.