The Technical Picture for ERCOT Heat Rates

Resource reliability, “energy only” model, “capacity auction” model: Is there a change coming for Texas? The discussion is in the news. There are smart people on both sides of the discussion. What’s the answer and when will it be decided? No one knows, but we believe the technical picture provides some clues as to how the market prices the risk. While this is a moving target, we offer the following for your consideration: a picture of the path of heat rates by zone with our observations and conclusions.