Infinity Power Partners - Volume 11, Issue 36

Written By Guest User

AT-A-GLANCE SUMMARY

The expiration of the October contract put an exclamation point on the bull move.

SUMMARY OF THE LAST WEEK IN CHARTS

Spot month natural gas (November) support is 5.50 with resistance at 6.00. Calendar year 2022 finds support at 4.30 with resistance at 4.60. Calendar year 2023 has support at 3.25 with resistance at 3.50.

Roadmap
NYMEX natural gas spot month (November) settled $0.419 higher at $5.619 compared to last Friday’s close.

Calendar 2022
Calendar 2022 ended ≈$0.1275 better at $4.3375.

Cal 2023
Calendar 2023 closed ≈$0.0775 up at $3.4625.

OUR TAKE ON THE MARKET THE "WINDOW MAKER" The spread has two important elements: volatility and bullishness as the chart depicts:

OUR TAKE ON THE MARKET


THE "WINDOW MAKER"

The spread has two important elements: volatility and bullishness as the chart depicts:

NYMEX Natural GasThe expiration of the October contract put an exclamation point on the bull move. The short squeeze was exacerbated by the market action that led to the dramatic end. A majority of the industry hasn’t experienced a bull market since 2006 – 2008 and is likely a tad freaked over the action. The lesson learned in the earlier market was the need to be innovative in structuring procurement (take what the market will give you). Many questions are being asked with the predominant one being, “when will the market pull back?” Again, leaning on the earlier experience, we expect higher prices with the coming of winter. The front of the curve continues to present the biggest challenges, yet the “cheap” calendar strips (2023 and back) are all above $3.00. The conclusion is that shorts will be enduring pain until (a) procuring with what’s available or (b) prices retreat. We bet on the former.WHOLESALE POWERERCOTHeat rates continue to make new lows as natural gas makes new highs:

NYMEX Natural Gas

The expiration of the October contract put an exclamation point on the bull move. The short squeeze was exacerbated by the market action that led to the dramatic end. A majority of the industry hasn’t experienced a bull market since 2006 – 2008 and is likely a tad freaked over the action. The lesson learned in the earlier market was the need to be innovative in structuring procurement (take what the market will give you). Many questions are being asked with the predominant one being, “when will the market pull back?” Again, leaning on the earlier experience, we expect higher prices with the coming of winter. The front of the curve continues to present the biggest challenges, yet the “cheap” calendar strips (2023 and back) are all above $3.00. The conclusion is that shorts will be enduring pain until (a) procuring with what’s available or (b) prices retreat. We bet on the former.

WHOLESALE POWER

ERCOT

Heat rates continue to make new lows as natural gas makes new highs:

They attempt to offset the strength of the feed stock. As prices are already challenging with expectations for more of the same, innovative structuring may provide a better economy. Explore what might be suitable for your needs and risk appetite. PJMNatural gas is key to direction (up).

They attempt to offset the strength of the feed stock. As prices are already challenging with expectations for more of the same, innovative structuring may provide a better economy. Explore what might be suitable for your needs and risk appetite.

PJM

Natural gas is key to direction (up).

Guest User
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