Infinity Insights – Volume 9, Issue 7
AT-A-GLANCE SUMMARY
NYMEX spot month (March) natural gas traded between resistance ($2.75) and support ($2.50) throughout the week.
SUMMARY OF THE LAST WEEK IN CHARTS
Spot month natural gas (March) has support at 2.50 then 2.25 with resistance at2.75 then 3.00. Calendar year 2019 has support at 2.70 with resistance 2.825. Calendar year 2020 has support at 2.72 with resistance at 2.77.For a look at our monthly market reports, visit Infinity Power Partner’s Market Overview.
RoadmapNYMEX natural gas spot month (March) finished the week at $2.717, $0.092 higher compared to last Friday.
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What’s This? – The “Roadmap” is the price action chart depicting the NYMEX natural gas spot month. It’s important because it is essentially the trading community’s market sentiment.
Cal 19Calendar 2019 settled at $2.84, ≈$0.05675.
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What’s This? – “Cal 19” is the first complete 12-month strip. It gives you a visual of price action and provides a reference point for our take on the market.
Cal 20Calendar 2020 closed ≈$0.0175 up at $2.74.
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What’s This? – “Cal 20” is the second complete 12-month strip. It gives you a visual of price action and provides a reference point for our take on the market.
OUR TAKE ON THE MARKET
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NYMEX spot month (March) natural gas traded between resistance ($2.75) and support ($2.50) throughout the week. This might be an accumulation phase, looking for a move to higher prices or it might be distribution looking for a continuation lower. Indicators have been bearish, an example being the wild ride of the “Widow maker” from the cold of November/December to the collapse as warm weather reappeared:Another indicator is open interest. It has been falling with lower prices, suggesting that long liquidation is occurring.The end of winter (storage withdrawal) and the beginning of refill of storage often is a defensive environment. We suspect that this year will meet that description. As the back of the curve is where power procurement will likely be made, spikes up front should help the backs move lower. We doubt that major fireworks in prices are in the cards.