Infinity Insights – Volume 9, Issue 36

AT-A-GLANCE SUMMARY

The key reversal signal discussed last week failed.

SUMMARY OF THE LAST WEEK IN CHARTS

Spot month natural gas (November) has support at 2.13 then 2.00, with resistance at 2.25, then 2.34. Calendar year 2020 has support at 2.39 with resistance 2.45. Calendar year 2021 has support at 2.42 with resistance at 2.48.For a look at our monthly market reports, visit Infinity Power Partner’s Market Overview.

RoadmapNYMEX natural gas spot month (November) finished $0.138 down at $2.214.

What’s This? – The “Roadmap” is the price action chart depicting the NYMEX natural gas spot month. It’s important because it is essentially the trading community’s market sentiment.

Cal 2020Calendar 2020 closed ≈$0.09 lower at $2.36.

What’s This? – “Cal 2020” is the first complete 12-month strip. It gives you a visual of price action and provides a reference point for our take on the market.

Cal 2021Calendar 2021 settled at $2.42, lower by ≈$0.04.

What’s This? – “Cal 2021” is the second complete 12-month strip. It gives you a visual of price action and provides a reference point for our take on the market.

OUR TAKE ON THE MARKET

NYMEX Natural Gas

The key reversal signal discussed last week failed. We suspect that 2.25 will continue to be an important level (what was support becomes resistance). The significance of how the front of the curve trades can be found in the deferred values (the ones that procurement will be more likely tied to). Price action tends to run counter to front volatility: up in front, lower in back and vice versa.

WHOLESALE POWER

ERCOTPrices reflect the relative calm of winter compared to the travails of summer. Heat rates continue higher as natural gas wavers.PJMPJM prices reflect the winter months’ higher marks due to heating requirements.