Infinity Insights – Volume 9, Issue 25

AT-A-GLANCE SUMMARY

Trading of spot NYMEX natural gas (August) remained in the previously discussed range between $2.18 and $2.50.

SUMMARY OF THE LAST WEEK IN CHARTS

Spot month natural gas (August) has support at 2.18, with resistance at 2.50. Calendar year 2020 has support at 2.50 with resistance 2.62. Calendar year 2021 has support at 2.55 with resistance at 2.63.For a look at our monthly market reports, visit Infinity Power Partner’s Market Overview.

RoadmapNYMEX natural gas spot month (August) ended $0.202 lower at $2.252.

What’s This? – The “Roadmap” is the price action chart depicting the NYMEX natural gas spot month. It’s important because it is essentially the trading community’s market sentiment.

Cal 20Calendar 2020 fell by ≈$0.1125, closing at $2.4925.

What’s This? – “Cal 20” is the first complete 12-month strip. It gives you a visual of price action and provides a reference point for our take on the market.

Cal 21Calendar 2021 was weaker by ≈$0.0475, finishing at $2.5525.

What’s This? – “Cal 21” is the second complete 12-month strip. It gives you a visual of price action and provides a reference point for our take on the market.

OUR TAKE ON THE MARKET

Trading of spot NYMEX natural gas (August) remained in the previously discussed range between $2.18 and $2.50. Several historically accurate indicators are bearish, something we don’t expect to change without a dramatic driver (weather).Looking at ERCOT power prices, heat rates continue to fall.Interesting that the heat rate forward curve is backwardated, usually a bullish tell. We see this as evidence of decentralization of the grid and the growth of renewables, reducing capacity demand (in the conventional sense). There seems to be a comfort level with a relatively flat curve. We anticipate no change in the immediate future.