Infinity Insights – Volume 9, Issue 21

AT-A-GLANCE SUMMARY

Spot NYMEX natural gas (July) traded down to near support at 2.25.

SUMMARY OF THE LAST WEEK IN CHARTS

Spot month natural gas (July) has support at 2.25 with resistance at 2.50. Calendar year 2020 has support at 2.60 with resistance 2.69. Calendar year 2021 has support at 2.62 with resistance at 2.69.For a look at our monthly market reports, visit Infinity Power Partner’s Market Overview.

RoadmapNYMEX natural gas spot month (July) ended up $0.03 at $2.367.

What’s This? – The “Roadmap” is the price action chart depicting the NYMEX natural gas spot month. It’s important because it is essentially the trading community’s market sentiment.

Cal 20Calendar 2020 closed ≈$0.015 better at $2.625.

What’s This? – “Cal 20” is the first complete 12-month strip. It gives you a visual of price action and provides a reference point for our take on the market.

Cal 21Calendar 2021 closed ≈$0.005 weaker at $2.6325.

What’s This? – “Cal 21” is the second complete 12-month strip. It gives you a visual of price action and provides a reference point for our take on the market.

OUR TAKE ON THE MARKET

Spot NYMEX natural gas (July) traded down to near support at 2.25. No new news to mention, so here we sit. The significant marks for power procurement are the calendar year price differentials. As the matrix bellow shows, natural gas curve (feedstock) is flat (Trade date - 6/10/19):

cal 20

2.61

cal 21

2.63

cal 22

2.63

cal 23

2.71

cal 24

2.80

cal 25

2.92

Multiplying heat rate values by the price of natural gas gives us the following look for wholesale prices:12 Year Averages

from Jan. 2020

2025-2031

Average

HZ

27.72

HZ

26.34

NZ

24.46

NZ

22.58

SZ

25.79

SZ

24.09

WZ

21.28

WZ

19.18

 We expect little change in the current pattern of pricing.