Infinity Insights – Volume 8, Issue 21

AT-A-GLANCE SUMMARY

Spot NYMEX natural gas (July) traded up to $3 resistance, a significant technical point, and closed above it.

SUMMARY OF THE LAST WEEK IN CHARTS

Spot month natural gas (July) has support at 3.00 then 2.90 with resistance at 3.14. Calendar year 2019 has support at 2.81, then 2.77 with resistance at 2.85. Calendar year 2020 has support at 2.65 with resistance at 2.72.For a look at our monthly market reports, visit Infinity Power Partner’s Market Overview.

Roadmap

NYMEX natural gas spot month (July) was higher by $0.132, closing at $3.022.

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What’s This? – The “Roadmap” is the price action chart depicting the NYMEX natural gas spot month. It’s important because it is essentially the trading community’s market sentiment.

Cal 19

Calendar 2019 finished higher by ≈$0.0575, closing at $2.8325.

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What’s This? – “Cal 19” is the first complete 12-month strip. It gives you a visual of price action and provides a reference point for our take on the market.

Cal 20

Calendar 2020 was ≈$0.0075 firmer at $2.6825.

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What’s This? – “Cal 20” is the second complete 12-month strip. It gives you a visual of price action and provides a reference point for our take on the market.

OUR TAKE ON THE MARKET

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Spot NYMEX natural gas (July) traded up to $3 resistance, a significant technical point, and closed above it. Configuration suggests prices will continue higher. Other indicators support strengthening.2019 and 2020 ERCOT wholesale heat rates, conversely, are at their weakest point since summer peak heat rate highs were reached three weeks ago:One likely reason for the weakness is that the market got ahead of itself and is consolidating, waiting for the next shoe to drop. Another is the current forecast of a wet end to June and tropics becoming more active. We suspect both have parts to play. While the weakness up front helps to lock lower prices, the back of the curve is firming. This as would be expected per curve dynamics.