Infinity Insights – Volume 8, Issue 11

AT-A-GLANCE SUMMARY

Spot NYMEX natural gas (April) is oversold but may remain so.

SUMMARY OF THE LAST WEEK IN CHARTS

Spot month natural gas (April) has support at 2.50 with resistance at 2.80 then 2.90 Calendar year 2019 has support at 2.76 with resistance at 2.85. Calendar year 2020 has support at 2.74 with resistance at 2.83.For a look at our monthly market reports, visit Infinity Power Partner’s Market Overview.

Roadmap

NYMEX natural gas spot month (April) closed down $0.097 at $2.591.

Roadmap

What’s This? – The “Roadmap” is the price action chart depicting the NYMEX natural gas spot month. It’s important because it is essentially the trading community’s market sentiment.

Cal 19

Calendar 2019 finished ≈$0.0525 weaker at $2.767.

Cal 19

What’s This? – “Cal 19” is the first complete 12-month strip. It gives you a visual of price action and provides a reference point for our take on the market.

Cal 20

Calendar 2020 was off ≈$0.02 at $2.745.

Cal 20

What’s This? – “Cal 20” is the second complete 12-month strip. It gives you a visual of price action and provides a reference point for our take on the market.

OUR TAKE ON THE MARKET

ERCOT

ERCOT

Spot NYMEX natural gas (April) is oversold but may remain so. The 2.50 area is the next support and 2.75/2.80 is upside resistance. There’s not been much volatility this week, prices just trudging lower.Turning to the ERCOT heat rate curves, we note that the front of the curve (current through early 2020s) remains firm and holds power prices steadier than the back of the curve, which gets weaker the further out one goes:Good value is found in the back of the curve, particularly when compared to the nearby tenors (years).