Infinity Insights - Volume 13, Issue 25

AT-A-GLANCE SUMMARY

The front of the natural gas curve remains range-bound.

SUMMARY OF THE LAST WEEK IN CHARTS

Spot month natural gas (September) support at 2.50 with resistance at 3.00. Calendar year 2024 finds support at 3.40 with resistance at 4.00. Calendar year 2025 has support at 3.90 with resistance at 4.35.

Roadmap

NYMEX natural gas spot month (September) ended down by $0.075 at $2.638

Compared to close of last Friday

Cal 2024
Calendar 2024 closed up by ≈$0.0725 at $3.665

Compared to close of last Friday

Cal 2025
Calendar 2025 closed better by ≈$0.0025 at $3.8675

Compared to close of last Friday

The “Widow Maker”

2024

Volatility…

OUR TAKE ON THE MARKETS

NYMEX Natural Gas

The front of the natural gas curve remains range-bound. The back calendar strips continue to trade in a range at the high end of prices. Summer is half done and seasonality rise of prices from fall forward is priced.

WHOLESALE POWER

The high heat rate values in ERCOT up front are expected to continue with record demand from extreme temperatures (and other jurisdictions subject to these same conditions). Beyond 2023, values are lower. Navigating through procurement is much tamer from 2024 out. It is noteworthy that heat rates in other jurisdictions have spiked with increased demand.