Infinity Insights - Volume 13, Issue 17

AT-A-GLANCE SUMMARY

NYMEX natural gas continues defensive yet holding $2 support.

SUMMARY OF THE LAST WEEK IN CHARTS

Spot month natural gas (June) support at 2.00 with resistance at 3.25. Calendar year 2024 finds support at 3.40 with resistance at 4.00. Calendar year 2025 has support at 3.85 with resistance at 4.35.

Roadmap

NYMEX natural gas spot month (June) ended down by $0.273 at $2.137

Compared to close last Friday

Cal 2024
Calendar 2024 finished off by ≈$0.19 at $3.63

Compared to close last Friday

Cal 2025
Calendar 2025 settled lower by ≈$0.065 at $4.08

Compared to close last Friday

The “Widow Maker”

2024

Volatility…

OUR TAKE ON THE MARKETS

NYMEX Natural Gas

NYMEX natural gas continues defensive yet holding $2 support. Lack of weather (demand) is the culprit. Regardless of immediate demand, summer’s challenges are upon us.

With summer comes hurricane season. For Texas, hurricanes are more often a late season thing (October-ish) but are a threat from June on. Weather has become more intense more often. Even though hurricanes are usually a bearish event (demand destruction, cooler weather), there are the instances of supply interruption (a la Katrina) where infrastructure is taken off line (Henry Hub). Accordingly, if procurement decisions are pending, early action will avoid unwelcomed volatility.

WHOLESALE POWER

ERCOT

Heat rates are softening.

PJM

Prices follow natural gas.