Infinity Insights - Volume 12, Issue 3

AT-A-GLANCE SUMMARY

 NYMEX natural gas spot month (February) fell below $4 support in the face of colder weather.

SUMMARY OF THE LAST WEEK IN CHARTS

Spot month natural gas (February) support 3.60 with resistance at 4.25. Calendar year 2022 finds support at 3.60 with resistance at 4.25. Calendar year 2023 has support at 3.35 with resistance at 3.65.

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Roadmap

NYMEX natural gas spot month (February) settled off by $0.263 at $3.999 compared to last Friday’s close.

Balance of Calendar 2022

Balance of Calendar 2022 closed ≈$0.2475 down at $3.9325.

Calendar 2023
Calendar 2023 ended the week lower by ≈$0.05 at $3.425.

OUR TAKE ON THE MARKET

THE "WIDOW MAKER"

Volatility…

NYMEX Natural Gas

NYMEX natural gas spot month (February) fell below $4 support despite colder weather. $3.60 is the next support level. The path for prices when viewed with what open interest numbers did is interesting. Last Wednesday, January 12, saw open interest grow by 20,000+ as prices soared to near $5, then lost 20,000 the next day when there was a sharp reversal. This suggests that new buying led the way higher, and disappointment led the way lower. A bull trap? The follow-through weakness suggests this is a likely scenario.

Bear moves in the midst of winter are confusing but, as our clients are buying to cover their inherent shorts, also an opportunity. Traders will have a different take as they will follow the trend either way. The back of the curve remains pricey.

WHOLESALE POWER

ERCOT

Continues to follow natural gas

PJM

Continues to follow natural gas