Infinity Insights - Volume 13, Issue 4

AT-A-GLANCE SUMMARY

The weakness seen in the front of the natural gas curve is spreading, with calendar strip 2024 below $4 for the first time since last spring.

SUMMARY OF THE LAST WEEK IN CHARTS

Spot month natural gas (March) support at 2.50 with resistance at 3.75. Balance of Calendar year 2023 finds support at 3.00 with resistance at 3.60. Calendar

year 2024 has support at 3.50 with resistance at 4.50.

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Roadmap

NYMEX natural gas spot month (March) finished down by $0.187 at $2.849

Compared to close last Friday

Cal 2023

Balance of Calendar 2023 closed down by ≈$0.15 at $3.3725

Compared to close last Friday

Cal 2024

Calendar 2024 settled lower by ≈$0.1425 at $3.88

Compared to close last Friday

The “Widow Maker” 2024

Volatility…

OUR TAKE ON THE MARKETS 

NYMEX Natural Gas

The weakness seen in the front of the natural gas curve is spreading, with calendar strip 2024 below $4 for the first time since last spring. Lack of demand continues. As the spot continuation chart below illustrates, support is now $2.50 with $1.50 under that.

 The change in pricing has been amazing. Spot month price is ¼ of what it was last fall. Regardless of surprise, the reality is that sideways action is more likely than a sharp reversal. Accordingly, patience is recommended. As to the back of the curve, the weakness in calendar strip 2024 suggests that prices will move to lower values as they approach spot month.

WHOLESALE POWER

ERCOT

Prices have retreated with natural gas.

PJM

Prices have retreated with natural gas.