Infinity Insights - Volume 13, Issue 1

AT-A-GLANCE SUMMARY

70-degree temperatures and continued closure of Freeport LNG facility have led spot prices to new lows.

SUMMARY OF THE LAST WEEK IN CHARTS

Spot month natural gas (February) support at 3.50 with resistance at 5.50. Balance of Calendar year 2023 finds support at 3.30 with resistance at 4.60. Calendar year 2024 has support at 4.00 with resistance at 4.50.

For a look at our monthly market reports, visit Infinity Power Partner’s Market Overview.

Roadmap

NYMEX natural gas spot month (February) ended down by $2.372 at $3.71
Compared to close Friday, December 9

Cal 2023
Balance of Calendar 2023 settled lower by ≈$1.5135 at $3.77
Compared to close Friday, December 9

Cal 2024
Calendar 2024 finished off by ≈$0.575 at $3.9725
Compared to close Friday, December 9

The “Widow Maker” 2023

Volatility…

OUR TAKE ON THE MARKETS 

NYMEX Natural Gas
70-degree temperatures and continued closure of Freeport LNG facility have led spot prices to new lows. The $4 area is long-term support for the entire curve, and our expectations are for this support to hold for the back while spot values will continue vulnerable due to the lack of demand.
 
Extreme weather (in this case, a warm winter) continues to drive prices, something that occurs more frequently with higher degree of severity. Nothing suggests this pattern is temporary. Managing the risk of energy procurement necessarily entails preparing for unpleasant surprises while capturing what value is available.

WHOLESALE POWER

ERCOT

Heat rates have rallied approximately one point as natural gas plummeted.

PJM

Prices follow natural gas