Infinity Insights - Volume 12, Issue 34

AT-A-GLANCE SUMMARY

Spot month NYMEX natural gas (November) traded between mid $8s and mid $7s, appearing to be in a holding pattern, then Thursday saw that pattern fail to the downside.

SUMMARY OF THE LAST WEEK IN CHARTS

Spot month natural gas (November) support at 6.50 with resistance at 8.00. Calendar year 2023 finds support at 5.40 with resistance at 6.75. Calendar year 2024 has support at 4.50 with resistance at 5.50.

For a look at our monthly market reports, visit Infinity Power Partner’s Market Overview.

Roadmap

NYMEX natural gas spot month (November) was off by $0.936 at $6.828

Compared to last Friday’s close

Cal 2023
Calendar 2023 settled lower by ≈$0.5025 at $5.42

Cal 2024
Calendar 2024 closed down by ≈$0.40 at $4.72

The “Widow Maker” 2023

Volatility…

OUR TAKE ON THE MARKETS 

NYMEX Natural Gas
Spot month NYMEX natural gas (November) traded between mid $8s and mid $7s, appearing to be in a holding pattern, then Thursday saw that pattern fail to the downside. Looking ahead, the transition for U.S. energy producers to global provider includes a higher base price as we currently experience. This said, the likelihood that prices will pull back significantly is limited to $5.50 in spot and $4 in the back calendar strips.

Extreme weather (or the lack of) is the biggest driver of incremental price movement. Weather swings are becoming more frequent and more severe. As the U.S. is now global in its energy commerce, our concern for weather is likewise global. Wearing the risk of the unknown is the biggest threat to procurement management, one that is managed with risk avoidance as the primary concern.

WHOLESALE POWER

ERCOT

The cost of generation (heat rates) has not moved significantly in value. Natural gas (feedstock) is the determinant of price.

PJM

Prices continue to follow natural gas.