Infinity Insights - Volume 12, Issue 30

AT-A-GLANCE SUMMARY

NYMEX spot month natural gas (September) spiked to 9.50 (ran stops to 9.662) and failed once again.

SUMMARY OF THE LAST WEEK IN CHARTS

Spot month natural gas (September) support at 7.50 with resistance at 9.50. Calendar year 2023 finds support at 6.00 with resistance at 6.75. Calendar year 2024 has support at 4.80 with resistance at 5.50.

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Roadmap

NYMEX natural gas spot month (September) ended the week up by $0.568 at $9.336

Cal 2023
Calendar 2023 settled higher by ≈$0.415 at $6.1025

Cal 2024
Calendar 2024 finished better by ≈$0.225 at $5.0275

The “Widow Maker” 2023

Volatility…

OUR TAKE ON THE MARKETS 

NYMEX Natural Gas
NYMEX spot month natural gas (September) spiked to 9.50 (ran stops to 9.662) and failed once again. The market continues to trade with volatility in a bullish environment. The back of the curve is firm. The next shoe to drop may be the catalyst needed to trade double digits. Regardless of the timing, buying pullbacks remains our recommendation.

When we reference buying pullbacks, we are acknowledging the direction of the market (up) and the broad range of pricing. Looking at the spot month continuation chart, below, note the $3+ delta between current price and up trend line. The market has backed off a possible breakout above $9.50. Eventually, in today’s bullish environment, we expect prices to move higher. NOTE: this is the second attempt and fail to make new lows. This is as expected. Double tops and bottoms usually hold. Triple tops and bottoms usually do not.

WHOLESALE POWER

ERCOT

Power led by natural gas.

PJM

Power led by natural gas.