Infinity Insights - Volume 12, Issue 28

AT-A-GLANCE SUMMARY

Spot month NYMEX natural gas (September) continued weakness post-buying climax, enabling economic energy procurement.

SUMMARY OF THE LAST WEEK IN CHARTS

Spot month natural gas (September) support at 7.00 with resistance at 8.50 then 9.50. Calendar year 2023 finds support at 5.00 with resistance at 6.00. Calendar year 2024 has support at 4.20 with resistance at 5.50.

For a look at our monthly market reports, visit Infinity Power Partner’s Market Overview.

Roadmap

NYMEX natural gas spot month (September) closed lower by $0.165 at $8.064

Cal 2023
Calendar 2023 ended off by ≈$0.02 at $5.365

Cal 2024
Calendar 2024 finished higher by ≈$0.03 at $4.665

The “Widow Maker” 2023

Volatility…

OUR TAKE ON THE MARKETS 

NYMEX Natural Gas

Spot month NYMEX natural gas (September) continued weaker post-buying climax, enabling economic energy procurement. Volatility continues to be highest in the front of the curve, with the back noticeably more sedate. As our clients are seeking best price, the realities of curve performance puts objectives in realistic perspective.

WHOLESALE POWER

ERCOT

We have mentioned that the front of the curve is much more volatile than the back. The following data for the period of January through July 2022 (Houston Zone, 7x24) provided to illustrate this point. Note that the balance of 2022 has a range of $5.50 for natural gas, with almost four for heat rate and $75+ for power. Compare this to Cal 2023, which is dramatically less volatile than the front. As you see, this trend to less volatility and smaller ranges follows as you move out in time. The import of this is to demonstrate where opportunity for assuming risk lies (and where it is not worth it).

PJM

Continues to follow natural gas.