Infinity Insights - Volume 12, Issue 19

AT-A-GLANCE SUMMARY

NYMEX natural gas price continues its erratic climb to higher numbers.

SUMMARY OF THE LAST WEEK IN CHARTS

Spot month natural gas (June) support 7.50 then 7.00 with resistance at 8.50. Calendar year 2023 finds support at 5.10 with resistance at 6.00. Calendar year 2024 has support at 4.05 with resistance at 4.45.

For a look at our monthly market reports, visit Infinity Power Partner’s Market Overview.

Roadmap

NYMEX natural gas spot month (June) settled up by $0.42 at $8.083 compared to last Friday.

Cal 2023

Calendar 2023 closed better by ≈$0.25 at $5.395.

Cal 2024

Calendar 2024 finished higher by ≈$0.13 at $4.085.

The “Widow Maker” 2023

 Volatility…

OUR TAKE ON THE MARKETS

NYMEX Natural Gas

NYMEX natural gas price continues its erratic climb to higher numbers. The calendar strips have made new highs:

2024

2025

2026

2027

The drivers include the new role of global energy supplier for the U.S. and domestic weather extremes. With current action occurring before the start of summer, and with concern for adequate resources for summer’s heat, the next three months may challenge strategies. Surviving summer is a good objective.

WHOLESALE POWER

ERCOT

Not too long ago, we suggested that those loads large enough to justify risk and understanding that risk might consider real-time pricing (LMP) as it offered lower procurement costs. The recent changes in LMP pricing ceiling and associated rules led us to that conclusion. Noting the chart below that illustrates the recent spike in prices (particularly Houston Zone); we retract our suggestion as too risky.

With summer before us, reducing risk means avoiding the consequences of extreme weather. LMP is too iffy.

PJM

Prices continue to follow natural gas.