Infinity Insights - Volume 12, Issue 17

AT-A-GLANCE SUMMARY

NYMEX natural gas continues to make new highs.

SUMMARY OF THE LAST WEEK IN CHARTS

Spot month natural gas (June) support 8.00 with resistance at 9.00.  Calendar year 2023 finds support at 5.10 with resistance at 6.00. Calendar year 2024 has support at 4.05 with resistance at 4.75.

For a look at our monthly market reports, visit Infinity Power Partner’s Market Overview.

Roadmap

NYMEX natural gas spot month (June) closed better by $0.799 at $8.043 compared to last Friday.

Cal 2023
Calendar 2023 ended higher by ≈$0.4075 at $5.35 compared to last Friday’s close.

Cal 2024
Calendar 2024 was up by ≈$0.2275 at $4.3225 compared to last Friday’s close.

The “Widow Maker” 2023 

Volatility…

OUT TAKE ON THE MARKETS

NYMEX Natural Gas

NYMEX natural gas continues to make new highs. The balance of 2022 is particularly troubling as you do not want to lock double-digit power, yet summer is coming with expectations for extreme weather and its consequences. The back-of-the curve calendar strips held $4 on recent pullback and we continue to recommend capturing values as close to $4 as possible. There is no secret to avoiding the pain of higher numbers. We note previous strategies as to timing and/or structure do not appear viable.

A Technical Perspective 

When prices spike for NYMEX natural gas, historically the run up is quick, dramatic, and short-lived. Panic and emotional responses lead the way. Today’s market may fall in line but the Ukrainian War and the search for alternative energy sources globally puts a twist to expectations.

We join the crowd when reluctant to chase prices up front. The early rise in a summer that may be weather-vulnerable does not bode well for those who have unlocked positions in the first 6 to 18 months. Any answer will likely be painful. In the back of the curve, however, prices near $4 provide reasonable value that we recommend locking.

WHOLESALE POWER

ERCOT

Following natural gas.

PJM

Following natural gas.