Infinity Insights - Volume 12, Issue 10

AT-A-GLANCE SUMMARY

NYMEX spot month natural gas (April) continues to trade between 5.00 and 4.20.

SUMMARY OF THE LAST WEEK IN CHARTS

Spot month natural gas (April) support 4.20 with resistance at 5.10. Balance of Calendar year 2022 finds support at 4.25 with resistance at 5.10. Calendar year 2023 has support at 3.90 with resistance at 4.10.

For a look at our monthly market reports, visit Infinity Power Partner’s Market Overview.

Roadmap

NYMEX natural gas spot month (April) finished off by $0.291 at $4.725 compared to last Friday’s close.

Balance of Cal 2022
Balance of Calendar 2022 closed lower by ≈$0.2325 at $4.9175.

Cal 2023
Calendar 2023 settled off by ≈$0.0425 at $3.895.

OUR TAKE ON THE MARKET

The “Widow Maker” 2023

Volatility…

NYMEX Natural Gas

NYMEX spot month natural gas (April) continues to trade between 5.00 and 4.20. The back of the curve has made new highs. While there isn’t any capacity for immediate additional LNG supply from the U.S., plans for expanding are in the works and may be behind the back strength. (If we had future LNG business, we’d be locking in economic prices.) On the other hand, it could be evidence of bear spreads.

Although we thought the back was over-priced, maybe in the new world of energy and politics, it isn’t. Prices in the back as found in Cal strips are $.50 above previous highs, which equates to $5ish per MW increase. Paying up is never a buyer’s first choice, but it may be a prudent risk management strategy. Decision hinges on expectations and risk tolerance.

WHOLESALE POWER

ERCOT

It’s a natural gas world.

PJM

It’s a natural gas world.