Infinity Insights - Volume 11, Issue 5

AT-A-GLANCE SUMMARY
NYMEX spot month natural gas (March) tested $3.00 resistance, helped by cold weather forecast.

SUMMARY OF THE LAST WEEK IN CHARTS

Spot month natural gas (March) support is 2.75 then 2.40 with resistance at 3.00. Balance of calendar year 2021 finds support at 2.85 with resistance at 3.10. Calendar year 2022 has support at 2.55 with resistance at 2.80.

Roadmap

NYMEX natural gas spot month (March) ended higher by $0.299 at $2.863.

Balance of Calendar 2021
Balance of Calendar 2021 ended up ≈$0.218 at $2.955.

Calendar 2022
Calendar 2022 settled at $2.7025, ≈$0.06 better.

OUR TAKE ON THE MARKET

NYMEX Natural Gas

NYMEX spot month natural gas (March) tested $3.00 resistance Tuesday, fueled by cold weather. Failing to penetrate, prices retreated to 2.75, now support. Price action appeared waiting for the next input (weather) and got it, climbing back to 3.00+ on Friday, but closing under resistance. Calendar strips also gained, reinforcing the bullish feel. Open interest grew on the run-up, indicating new buying.

Natural gas buyers don’t want to pay up (cheaper is better) but current circumstances aren’t cooperating. Cold weather seems here to stay through at least mid-February. If avoidable, chasing prices is not a prudent strategy. Buying weakness is a good answer.

WHOLESALE POWER

ERCOT

Demand remains lackluster as indicated by heat rates continuing to make new lows.

PJM

Prices have firmed with incremental weather demand.

Stay Safe!