Infinity Insights - Volume 11, Issue 41
AT-A-GLANCE SUMMARY
Spot month NYMEX natural gas (December) continues to trade between $5 and $6.
SUMMARY OF THE LAST WEEK IN CHARTS
Spot month natural gas (December) support is 5.20 with resistance at 6.00. Calendar year 2022 finds support at 4.25 with resistance at 4.75. Calendar year 2023 has support at 3.40 with resistance at 3.65
Roadmap
NYMEX natural gas spot month (December) finished $0.09 better at $5.516 compared to last Friday’s Close.
Calendar 2022
Calendar 2022 settled ≈$0.0675 lower at $4.3225.
Cal 2023
Calendar 2023 closed ≈$0.13 lower at $3.4275.
OUR TAKE ON THE MARKET
THE "WIDOW MAKER"
Volatility…
NYMEX Natural Gas
Spot month NYMEX natural gas (December) continues to trade between $5 and $6. The back of the curve pulled back as it was overbought. Winter approaches not threateningly as in “Polar Vortex” but with warmer/cooler cycles. The end of next week is forecasted by some models for colder air which is probably needed to advance through the $6 resistance. The bottom line appears to be a continuation of sideways action until demand (or lack of) triggers a move.
The current outlook aside, it is still a bull market. We see the pullbacks as opportunities for lower price capture but not indicators of trend reversals. Procure when weakness is offered.
WHOLESALE POWER
ERCOT
Power prices have pulled back from highs mirroring natural gas. Heat rates are steady. We again counsel procurement on weakness.
PJM
Regional weather differences are impacting price movement to the extent that even with natural gas weakness some jurisdictions have a slight price raise.