Infinity Insights - Volume 11, Issue 32
AT-A-GLANCE SUMMARY
Spot month NYMEX natural gas (October) continued its climb higher after a stutter step when
Hurricane “Ida” moved through the Gulf of Mexico.
SUMMARY OF THE LAST WEEK IN CHARTS
Spot month natural gas (October) support is 4.40 then 4.20 with resistance at 5.00.
Calendar year 2022 finds support at 3.40 with resistance at 4.00. Calendar year 2023
has support at 3.00 with resistance at 3.20.
Roadmap
NYMEX natural gas spot month (October) ended at $4.712, $0.324 higher
compared to last Friday’s Close.
Cal 2022
Calendar 2022 closed ≈$0.1825 better at $3.8825.
Cal 2023
Calendar 2023 settled ≈$0.065 up at $3.15.
OUR TAKE ON THE MARKETS
NYMEX Natural Gas
Spot month NYMEX natural gas (October) continued its climb higher after a stutter step when Hurricane “Ida” moved through the Gulf of Mexico. Technically, the next objective is $5.00. Calendar strips likewise made new highs, 2022 reaching 3.80+ with an objective of $4.00. To summarize, natural gas remains in a strong bull market.
In discussions with folks who need to procure but want to avoid buying at highs, we understand their hesitancy. The problem is determining what’s too high? We have drawn parallels between today’s action and that of the market following “Katrina” and “Rita”. It has been so long that many don’t remember the run to $16.00.
There were a lot of influences outside of the realm of supply and demand, but the action was sobering. Today, we have a different market with real concern for supply. Can prices go higher? It is within realistic expectations. Today’s risk maybe seems timid tomorrow.
WHOLESALE POWER
ERCOT
Heat rates have declined by about 1 over the past month. This has offset the strength in natural gas and has prices flat.
PJM
Natural gas strength has kept prices near highs.