Infinity Insights - Volume 11, Issue 3

AT-A-GLANCE SUMMARY
Spot month NYMEX natural gas (February) sold off, prompted by lack of cold weather.

SUMMARY OF THE LAST WEEK IN CHARTS

Spot month natural gas (February) support is 2.40 with resistance at 2.80. Balance of calendar year 2021 finds support at 2.55 with resistance at 2.85. Calendar year 2022 has support at 2.55 with resistance at 2.80.

Roadmap

NYMEX natural gas spot month (February) ended the week at $2.446, off $0.291.

Balance of Calendar 2021
Balance of Calendar 2021 settled down ≈$0.175 at $2.65.

Calendar 2022
Calendar 2022 closed at $2.6375, ≈$0.055 lower.

OUR TAKE ON THE MARKET

NYMEX Natural Gas

Spot month NYMEX natural gas (February) sold off, prompted by lack of cold weather. Support is somewhere between 2.50 and 2.40. Calendar year strips likewise fell, hitting the balance of cal 2021 hardest. Range trading appears likely without new news to push prices one way or the other.

Previous “Insights” pointed to price levels that offer value. In general, 2.50 is an opportunity and 3.00 is pricey. Looking at current values, we can see actionable pricing:

WHOLESALE POWER

ERCOT

Lack of demand continues to see heat rates at lows.

PJM

Seasonal demand remains steady with natural gas prices being the variable.

Stay Safe!