Infinity Insights - Volume 11, Issue 29

AT-A-GLANCE SUMMARY
Expectations by neither the bulls nor the bears have been realized.

SUMMARY OF THE LAST WEEK IN CHARTS

Spot month natural gas (September) support is 3.80 with resistance at 5.00. Calendar year 2022 finds support at 3.40 with resistance at 4.00. Calendar year 2023 has support at 2.80 with resistance at 3.20.

Roadmap
NYMEX natural gas spot month (September) closed at $3.861, off $0.279 compared to last Friday’s Close.

Calendar 2022
Calendar 2022 ended lower by ≈$0.11 at $3.48.

Cal 2023
Calendar 2023 settled ≈$0.025 weaker at $3.02.

OUR TAKE ON THE MARKET

NYMEX Natural Gas
Expectations by neither the bulls nor the bears have been realized. Perhaps the pause is really a stall. This appears more likely in the prompt month yet the calendar strips remain at or near their highs. How to manage the risk at highs is troublesome but often necessary. Remaining short isn’t our choice.

WHOLESALE POWER

ERCOT
Heat rates have pulled back from their highs.

This possibly indicates less concern for resource adequacy as we move into the heart of summer’s heat. It will be a good indicator to watch.

PJM

Natural gas remains the driver of prices.