Infinity Insights - Volume 11, Issue 16

AT-A-GLANCE SUMMARY
The NYMEX natural gas spot month (May) expired on Wednesday, rallying to near $3.00

SUMMARY OF THE LAST WEEK IN CHARTS

Spot month natural gas (June) support is 2.75 with resistance at 3.10. Balance of calendar year 2021 finds support at 3.00 with resistance at 3.15. Calendar year 2022 has support at 2.70 with resistance at 2.80.

Roadmap
NYMEX natural gas spot month (June) settled at $2.931 up $0.113.

Balance of Calendar 2021
Balance of Calendar 2021 closed higher by ≈$0.10 at $3.01.

Calendar 2022
Calendar 2022 ended at $2.74, ≈$0.025 up.

OUR TAKE ON THE MARKET

NYMEX Natural Gas

The NYMEX natural gas spot month (May) expired on Wednesday, rallying to near $3.00. June (the new spot month) begins at similar levels. Technically, prices face resistance at the old highs of $3.10. The balance of the forward curve has likewise moved to near high values. While the market has become overbought for the short term, support is at $2.75.

Open interest has dropped, perhaps indicating a reluctance to press the upside. That said, our expectations continue to be bullish.

WHOLESALE POWER

ERCOT
Heat rates have remained strong even with natural gas rally, something that highlights a bullish tone. LMP continues to price high relative to history, something we continue to monitor.

PJM

Prices continue to firm with natural gas.