Infinity Insights - Volume 11, Issue 13

AT-A-GLANCE SUMMARY
Spot NYMEX natural gas traded between 2.60 and 2.45 over the past week.

SUMMARY OF THE LAST WEEK IN CHARTS

Spot month natural gas (May) support is 2.50 then 2.35 with resistance at 2.75. Balance of calendar year 2021 finds support at 2.65 with resistance at 2.85. Calendar year 2022 has support at 2.55 with resistance at 2.80.

Roadmap

NYMEX natural gas spot month (May) finished down $0.093 at $2.619 compared to close of March 26th

Balance of Calendar 2021
Balance of Calendar 2021 settled lower by ≈$0.01 at $2.725.

Calendar 2022
Calendar 2022 ended at $2.66, ≈$0.0275 better.

OUR TAKE ON THE MARKET

NYMEX Natural Gas

Spot NYMEX natural gas traded between 2.60 and 2.45 over the past week. Warm weather is likely the driver yet prices below 2.50 find support. The next six months of the forward curve are trading premium (contango) to spot, something that, absent weather demand, suggests a tendency to converge to lower numbers as each month rolls into spot.

WHOLESALE POWER

ERCOT
Heat rates continue to stay strong, offsetting lower natural gas prices. The capture of capacity is likely a part of this strength.

PJM

Springtime weather has prices off the lows following natural gas gyrations.

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