Infinity Insights - Volume 11, Issue 1

AT-A-GLANCE SUMMARY
Over the past three weeks, spot NYMEX natural gas has traded down to $2.25 and up to $2.75, following changing weather expectations.

SUMMARY OF THE LAST WEEK IN CHARTS

Spot month natural gas (February) support is 2.55 then 2.25 with resistance at 2.75 then 3.00. Balance of calendar year 2021 finds support at 2.70 then 2.55 with resistance at 2.85, then 3.00. Calendar year 2022 has support at 2.55 with resistance at 2.80.

Roadmap

NYMEX natural gas spot month (February) finished at $2.70, $0.019 higher compared to close of December 18th.

Balance of Calendar 2021
Balance of Calendar 2021 ended ≈$0.15 better at $2.80.

Calendar 2022
Calendar 2022 settled at $2.646, unchanged.

OUR TAKE ON THE MARKET

NYMEX Natural Gas

Over the past three weeks, spot NYMEX natural gas has traded down to $2.25 and up to $2.75, following changing weather expectations. Calendar strips likewise sold off and rallied to current levels. What is usually dead space, the last two weeks of December produced volatility. Commitments (open interest) have dropped, indicating net liquidation of positions.

WHOLESALE POWER

ERCOT

Demand is soft, reflected in heat rate values.

PJM

Prices have firmed, likely due to weather demand.

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