Infinity Insights-Volume 10, Issue 7

AT-A-GLANCE SUMMARYSpot month NYMEX natural gas (March) rallied through immediate resistance but stalled above $2.

SUMMARY OF THE LAST WEEK IN CHARTS

Spot month natural gas (March) has support at 1.87 then1.80 with resistance at 2.05. Calendar year 2021 finds support at 2.32 with resistance at 2.41. Calendar year 2022 has support at 2.37 with resistance at 2.45.RoadmapNYMEX natural gas spot month (March) finished the week higher by $0.068 at $1.905.Calendar 2021Calendar 2022 settled at $2.378, off by ≈$0.025.Calendar 2022Calendar 2022 went out at $2.404, lower by ≈$0.006.

OUR TAKE ON THE MARKET

NYMEX Natural Gas

Spot month NYMEX natural gas (March) rallied through immediate resistance but stalled above $2. Price action filled a gap from the middle of January. The timing is interesting as the market calendar rolls into the refilling of storage mode with April. The reaction in the deferred part of the forward curve has been steady to lower, something that helps to lock in attractive procurement. Expiration of March is February 26

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, so any action will be in a self-liquidating market where volatility can rear its head.

WHOLESALE POWER

ERCOTForward curve fixed wholesale power prices remain steady. The real-time market (LMP) has historically found support under $20/MW and it appears that this is again the case. The arbitrage between fixed and real-time is tightening but remains operable for those with risk tolerance and size to justify utilization.

PJM

Power prices continue to follow natural gas up front and the seasonal trend. The question is, “will there be sufficient weather to change this?”