Infinity Insights-Volume 10, Issue 27
THIS QUARTER AT IPP
What a fantastic quarter it’s been!
Infinity Power Partners (IPP) is proud to welcome National Real Estate Advisors, LLC to our family! National Real Estate Advisors, LLC is an investment manager specializing in a build-to-core strategy, developing and managing large-scale, urban commercial and multifamily projects for its institutional client accounts. National is an independently operated subsidiary of the National Electrical Benefit Fund (“NEBF”), a substantial pension trust with a significant amount of assets that are managed by National on a discretionary basis.
IPP was introduced to National Real Estate Advisors through a current client, Madison Marquette. At this time, National’s Pennsylvania portfolio was being established, and we have been able to aggregate their portfolio in both power and gas to secure below market energy rates while assisting them in developing their internal process to provide an expected savings of approximately $250,000. These contracts not only provided significant savings, but delivered budget certainty to their current and future projects in Pennsylvania. This resulted in updated contracts for several properties all co-terminating and offering significant contractual advantages during such an uncertain time. Our team also secured a gas contract in Colorado, which expects an additional $20,000 savings for National. Currently, we are working with them to review their nationwide portfolio to identify market opportunities across the nation. It has been a pleasure working with their team and we look forward to continuing to do so for years to come.
And now on to your regularly scheduled Weekly Market Report…
AT-A-GLANCE SUMMARY
Looking at charts, different types may give more clarity or filter out “noise” (inter-day gyrations).
SUMMARY OF THE LAST WEEK IN CHARTS
Spot month natural gas (August) has support at 1.70 with resistance at 1.95. Calendar year 2021 finds support at 2.60 with resistance at 2.75. Calendar year 2022 has support at 2.40 with resistance at 2.55.
Roadmap
NYMEX natural gas spot month (August) finished at $1.718, $0.087 lower versus the close of July 10.
Cal 2021
Calendar 2021 finished ended at $2.614, $0.01 higher versus last Friday.
Cal 2022
Calendar 2022 ended higher by ≤$ 015 at $2.455 versus last Friday.
OUR TAKE ON THE MARKET
NYMEX Natural Gas
Looking at charts, different types may give more clarity or filter out “noise” (inter-day gyrations). NYMEX spot-month natural gas (August) offers an example.
This is a line chart that connects each day’s (period’s) close to the next. Some technicians believe that opening and closing points are the only relevant action. Our opinion is that more data and looks are better. Regardless, this chart is compatible with the interpretation that the price action reversed. Support looks to be 1.70 and resistance at 1.95. Find the road map(s) that help you.
WHOLESALE POWER
ERCOT
In the chart below, we see the picture of the component curves (Natural gas, Heat Rate) and the product of those curves, wholesale power. Evident is the similarity of pattern linked to seasonality. Interestingly, the patterns have level bottoms and spiked tops. The individual months will change, but one observation is that natural gas climbs in late summer while heat rates fall. Intuitive, but helpful with timing. Combine this with current circumstance and a clearer picture likely occurs.
The more data is better.
PJM
Prices continue to follow natural gas.