Infinity Insights-Volume 10, Issue 22

AT-A-GLANCE SUMMARY

Spot month NYMEX natural gas (July) has followed the recent trend of losing its premium to the previous spot month.

SUMMARY OF THE LAST WEEK IN CHARTS

Spot month natural gas (July) has support at 1.60 with resistance at 185.Calendar year 2021 finds support at 2.60 then 2.50 with resistance at 2.75. Calendar year 2022 has support at 2.40 with resistance at 2.55.RoadmapNYMEX natural gas spot month (July) closed lower by $0.067at $1.782 compared to last Friday’s close.Calendar 2021Calendar 2021 settled at $2.6275, off $0.0275.Calendar 2022Calendar 2022 went out lower by ≤$ 0.0225 at $2.4625.

OUR TAKE ON THE MARKET

NYMEX Natural Gas

Spot month NYMEX natural gas (July) has followed the recent trend of losing its premium to the previous spot month. $1.85 to $1.65 appears a comfort range. We assume this trend will continue through the balance of 2020. 2021 and outlook poised to move higher.

WHOLESALE POWER

ERCOT

Power prices are static. The concerns folks are embracing centers around sufficiency of capacity in the heat of summer.

An aside: 5 cent full requirements power was the number people hoped for in days gone by. With the collapse of natural gas prices in the 2015/2016 time frame, lower prices were cheerfully welcomed. Today, prices are off the bottom, in a bullish configuration, and once again 5 cent is on the radar. Is it a ceiling or a floor? Time will tell.

PJM

Power prices are off their recent high and likewise off the low. There doesn’t appear any capacity concerns for summer. Static pricing looks to be the route of choice.

Stay Safe!