Infinity Insight - Volume 11, Issue 43
AT-A-GLANCE SUMMARY
The remaining winter months of the NYMEX forward curve (January, February, March) have seen prices fall dramatically.
SUMMARY OF THE LAST WEEK IN CHARTS
Spot month natural gas (January) support is 4.00 with resistance at 5.00. Calendar year 2022 finds support at 3.60 with resistance at 4.25. Calendar year 2023 has support at 3.40 with resistance at 3.65.
Roadmap
NYMEX natural gas spot month (January) closed down $1.013 at $4.132, compared to close on 11/19.
Calendar 2022
Calendar 2022 settled ≈$0.36 lower at $3.905.
Cal 2023
Calendar 2023 ended down ≈$0.0725 at $3.4175.
OUR TAKE ON THE MARKET
THE "WIDOW MAKER"
Volatility…
NYMEX Natural Gas
The remaining winter months of the NYMEX forward curve (January, February, March) have seen prices fall dramatically. Lack of winter weather is the culprit, with no heating demand. The balance of the curve has remained firm as would be expected with the front weak. At some point, cold weather will surface and likely instigate some rally. Weather, or lack of weather, drives natural gas prices.
Just as demand drives prices higher, lack of demand drives prices lower with the current market retreating from the first bull market in a decade. Given continued pressure, the back of the curve would be expected to fall. Patience may save you money.
WHOLESALE POWER
ERCOT
Prices have retreated following natural gas.
PJM
Prices have retreated following natural gas.