Infinity Insights - Volume 10, Issue 34

AT-A-GLANCE SUMMARY

NYMEX natural gas balance of 2020 has traded lower since the end of August, likely influenced by mild weather.

SUMMARY OF THE LAST WEEK IN CHARTS

Spot month natural gas (October) has support at 2.20 with resistance at 2.50, then 2.75. Calendar year 2021 finds support at 2.80 with resistance at 3.00. Calendar year 2022 has support at 2.55 with resistance at 2.75.

Roadmap

NYMEX natural gas spot month (October) settled at $2.269, $0.388 lower versus the close of August 28th   

Cal 2021
Calendar 2021 closed at $2.9625, ≤$0.0225 higher versus last August 28th

Cal 2022
Calendar 2022 ended at $26475, ≤$0.01 firmer compared to August 28th

OUR TAKE ON THE MARKETS

NYMEX Natural Gas

NYMEX natural gas balance of 2020 has traded lower since the end of August, likely influenced by mild weather. Calendar strip 2021, on the other hand, has made new highs, currently testing the 3.00 level of resistance. The picture continues to be two-fold: The balance of 2020 reflecting mild weather and diminished demand while Cal 2021 forward trade near highs.

 Our expectations are for sideways trade until the next shoe drops. Market influences coming from non-demand driven things (presidential election) and demand issues (Covid - 19).  Managing current risk is challenging.

 WHOLESALE POWER

 ERCOT

Heat rates have offset natural gas strength. Real time pricing (LMP) has soften as demand spikes less likely with weather turning milder than expected.

 PJM

Prices have firmed with natural gas price action.